Watch A Free Stream Of Everyone Orchestra’s NYE Performance Tonight

first_imgEveryone Orchestra is set to ring in the New Year tonight at Gypsy Sally’s in Washington, DC. This iteration of the Matt Butler led group will see Ryan Montbleau, Steve Molitz (Particle), Cris Jacobs (The Bridge), Hash & Jeff Franca (Thievery Corporation), Ron Holloway (Warren Haynes Band) Durga McBroom (Pink Floyd), and Jans Ingber (formerly of The Motet), explore the free-form improvisational realm. The night will open with performances from The Trongone Band, and Of Tomorrow.If you can’t make it out to DC, fear not. Taper Will Urquhart is live streaming the whole thing for your viewing pleasure. Check it out, below!Of Tomorrow Livestream (expected around 9pm):The Trongone Band Livestream (expected around 10:15):Everyone Orchestra Livestream (expected around 11:30, and doing 2 sets)Happy New Year!last_img read more

Bertrand heading to Villa

first_img Mourinho also confirmed Belgian midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is close to leaving the Barclays Premier League title-chasers. “This transfer window is more about people leaving than coming. We are happy with our squad,” he said. Chelsea host Manchester United on Sunday and even though David Moyes’ side trail leaders Arsenal by 11 points, Mourinho refuses to rule them out of the title race. “Arsenal and Manchester City are the top two teams,” he said. “City have the ammunition and Liverpool have a fantastic chance because they are not in European competition. “Man United are Man United. Eleven points is a big gap but I believe they’ll push all the way.” Mourinho insists United remain dangerous opponents even though they sit seventh in the table, five points adrift of the Champions League places. “We play against the champions. We play Manchester United, not a team 11 points behind the leaders,” he said. Mourinho revealed the 24-year-old left-back has agreed to the move due to his lack of first-team action at Stamford Bridge. “Ryan is to go on loan for the rest of the season. We felt and he agrees totally that he needs to play,” Mourinho said. “I’ve played many big matches and this is what my experience tells me. “A team that appears to be in the most difficulty can be the most dangerous.” For Bertrand, joining Villa represents his eighth loan spell away from the club since signing for Chelsea as a 16-year-old in the summer of 2006. In his seven-and-a-half years at Stamford Bridge, Bertrand has only made 57 appearances, although one of those was as a starter in the 2012 Champions League final against Bayern Munich. Bertrand has also represented England at every level from the under-17s, with two senior caps to his name at the start of last season, as well as playing for Great Britain in the 2012 Olympics. But with just three appearances for Chelsea this season, Mourinho has decided Bertrand’s short-term future lies elsewhere, with Villa only too happy to acquire his services to strengthen their defence. Speaking to Villa’s website, manager Paul Lambert said: “Ryan brings a lot of big-game experience, not only in the Barclays Premier League but even a Champions League final which Chelsea won, so he’ll be really good for us. “The way he plays the game and as a person too, he’ll fit in here great and it will be good for him also to be playing games. “He has real enthusiasm for the game and he’s looking forward to playing here. “We’re grateful to Chelsea for allowing him to come here on loan and we know he’ll be really good to work with.” Bertrand knows it is more upheaval to his career, but he said: “I’ve had to adjust many times in my career having played under several managers, so I know I can settle in here quickly and I’m looking forward to being able to contribute to the team. “I’m focused on continuing to progress and helping the team here to do that too. “We have a lot of young, talented players here with some experienced heads as well, they want to express themselves and I hope I can add to that and add my experience in a productive way. “It’s a fantastic opportunity for me to come here. Aston Villa is a fantastic club with a massive fanbase and a great history. “To get this chance to come here and play some games will be a really good step for me.” Chelsea defender Ryan Bertrand will join Aston Villa on loan until the end of the season, manager Jose Mourinho has announced. Press Associationlast_img read more

Manchester City record first-ever profit of Sheikh Mansour era

first_img City made a £10.7million profit in the 2014-15 season despite failing to win a trophy – figures which highlight how the club have been able to free themselves of any UEFA financial fair play sanctions. The club reported record revenues of £351.8million, up from £347million, but significantly have cut costs including reducing the wage bill for a second successive year. The wage bill is down to £193.5million compared to £205million a year before – Manchester United’s is £203million and Arsenal’s is £192.2million. The most recent figures for Chelsea’s wage bill are £192.7million for the 2013-14 season. City hailed the profit as an “historical step” but chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak said the lack of silverware last season remained a cause for disappointment, a statement which may serve as something of a warning to manager Manuel Pellegrini. Khaldoon said: “The fact that we consider last season to be below par for Manchester City is a testament to how far we have come in the last seven years. This is a level of ambition that we should not shirk or shy away from. “It is right to have high expectations for this great club and the talented group of players chosen to represent it. “No team can expect to win every year, but competing to win in England’s domestic competitions and improving our performance in the UEFA Champions League are entirely reasonable goals for Manchester City. “The desire for silverware has always been a critical element of His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed’s strategy for the reinvigoration of Manchester City FC both on and off the pitch. “To put things in their simplest terms, we are now a profitable business with no debt and no outstanding restrictions.” Chief executive Ferran Soriano said the opening of the City Football Academy last December was a significant step and the expansion of the Etihad Stadium to a 55,000 capacity would generate more income. He added: “The 2014-15 season marked a historical step in Manchester City’s journey.” City’s financial results show the club are now competing with neighbours Manchester United off the pitch as well as on it. Overall revenue is in the same ball-park (£351.8million compared to United’s £395million), the wage bill is similar but City do not have to pay anything in debt repayments. Press Associationcenter_img Manchester City have made a profit for the first time since the club’s takeover by Sheikh Mansour in 2008 – and despite what the chairman describes as a “below par” season on the pitch. last_img read more

9 months agoChelsea agree to go higher for Zenit midfielder Leandro Paredes

first_imgTagsTransfersAbout the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say Chelsea agree to go higher for Zenit midfielder Leandro Paredesby Paul Vegas9 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveChelsea have upped their offer for Zenit St Petersburg midfielder Leandro Paredes.The Blues are going to £36m to convince Zenit to sell.The Daily Star says Maurizio Sarri’s side have turned to Zenit midfielder Paredes after being told by Cagliari that £45m starlet Nicolo Barella is off the market.Paredes was next on Chelsea’s wish list and the Argentina international, 24, has now agreed terms on a four-and-a-half year deal worth £80,000-a-week.Chelsea have previously bid £26.8m and £31.2m for Paredes but a third offer is expected to get the deal over the line. last_img read more

SAGE investigation wises up to signs of rigged review

first_img Citation: SAGE investigation wises up to signs of rigged review (2014, July 11) retrieved 18 August 2019 from This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. What lesson do rising retraction rates hold for peer review? ( —For movie stars, bad publicity—a fender-bender, rowdy behavior at a club, neighbor’s complaints—is better than the real career-killer, which is no publicity at all. In scientific research, the opposite is true. No publicity over the veracity of research efforts in peer-reviewed journals is better than bad press. This week, however, news that a scholarly journal retracted 60 articles after discovering what it said was apparent rigged peer review drew a favorable light on SAGE, the journal’s publishers. They cared enough to set the record straight themselves, independent of outside publicity. The articles were pulled after evidence pointed toward the articles having at least one author, or being reviewed by at least one reviewer, implicated in the peer review/citation ring. The publication at the center of this story is Journal of Vibration Control, a peer-review journal with a focus on acoustics. The formal description is as a peer-reviewed journal of analytical, computational and experimental studies of vibration phenomena and their control. The word “ring” is not a sensationalist term invented by the outside press to describe the scholarly journal’s discovery. The SAGE Publication team themselves called the group a ring; they said last year the then editor-in-chief and SAGE became aware of signs that there was apparently a peer review ring involving assumed and fabricated identities, to manipulate the online submission system. SAGE and the editor carried out the investigation with the full cooperation of the National Pingtung University of Education (NPUE) in Taiwan. According to the SAGE statement on its findings, appearing to center around one person at the NPUE, the author had created various aliases on SAGE Track and, on at least one occasion, the author had reviewed his own paper under one of the aliases he had created: “While investigating the JVC papers submitted and reviewed by Peter Chen, it was discovered that the author had created various aliases on SAGE Track, providing different email addresses to set up more than one account. Consequently, SAGE scrutinised further the co-authors of and reviewers selected for Peter Chen’s papers, these names appeared to form part of a peer review ring. The investigation also revealed that on at least one occasion, the author Peter Chen reviewed his own paper under one of the aliases he had created.”.In a report from The New York Times, Chen Chien-huang, the university’s chief secretary, said by email on Friday morning that the university is still looking into the case. “We are continuing to investigate according to the materials just publicized by JVC,” he wrote.The journal and SAGE understand from NPUE that the man considered to be at the center resigned his post at NPUE.The mass withdrawal of papers by the journal was first reported by Retraction Watch, a blog that reports on retractions of scientific papers. The Guardian said that the 60 papers involved were published in print and online over the past four years. SAGE said that, looking ahead, they have put steps in place to make the journal less vulnerable. Three senior editors and an additional 27 associate editors “with expertise and prestige in the field” were appointed to assist with the day-to-day running of the JVC peer review process. Explore further © 2014 Credit: SAGE More information: … -60-papers-retractedlast_img read more

In the January BIG GOLD I interviewed a plethora

first_imgIn the January BIG GOLD, I interviewed a plethora of experts on their views about gold for this year. The issue was so popular that we decided to republish a portion of the edition here. Given their level of success, these fund managers are worth listening to: James Rickards, Chris Martenson, Steve Henningsen, Grant Williams, and Brent Johnson. Some questions are the same, while others were tailored to their particular expertise. I hope you find their comments as insightful and useful as I did… James Rickards is chief global strategist at the West Shore Funds, editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and director of the James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital. He is the author of the New York Times best-seller The Death of Money and the national best-seller Currency Wars. He’s a portfolio manager, lawyer, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. He’s an op-ed contributor to the Financial Times, Evening Standard, New York Times, and Washington Post, and has been interviewed by the BBC, CNN, NPR, C-SPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and the Wall Street Journal. Jeff: Your book The Death of Money does not paint an optimistic economic picture. What will the average citizen experience if events play out as you expect? James: The end result of current developments in the international monetary system will almost certainly be high inflation or borderline hyperinflation in US dollars, but this process will take a few years to play out, and we may experience mild deflation first. Right now, global markets want to deflate, yet central banks must achieve inflation in order to make sovereign debt loads sustainable. The result is an unstable balance between natural deflation and policy inflation. The more deflation persists in the form of lower prices for oil and other commodities, the more central banks must persist in monetary easing. Eventually inflation will prevail, but it will be through a volatile and unstable process. Jeff: The gold price has been in a downtrend for three years. Is the case for gold over? If not, what do you think kick-starts a new bull market? James: The case for gold is not over—in fact, things are just getting interesting. I seldom think about the “price” of gold. I think of gold as money and everything else as a price measured in gold units. When the dollar price of gold is said to be “down,” I think of gold as a constant store of value and that the dollar is simply “up” in the sense that it takes more units of gold to buy one dollar. This perspective is helpful, because gold can be “down” in dollars but “up” in yen at the same time, and often is when the yen is collapsing against the dollar. The reason gold is thought to be “down” is because the dollar is strong. However, a strong dollar is deflationary at a time when the Fed’s declared policy is to get inflation. Therefore, I expect the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015 due to US economic weakness and because they do not want a stronger dollar. When that realization sinks in, the dollar should move lower and gold higher when measured in dollar terms. The looming global shortage of physical gold relative to demand also presages a short squeeze on the paper gold edifice of futures, options, unallocated forward sales, and ETFs. The new bull market will be kick-started when markets realize the Fed cannot raise rates in 2015 and when the Fed finds it necessary to do more quantitative easing, probably in early 2016. Jeff: Given what you see coming, how should the average retail investor position his or her portfolio? James: Since risks are balanced between deflation and inflation in the short run, a sound portfolio should be prepared for both. Investors should have gold, silver, land, fine art, and other hard assets as an inflation hedge. They should have cash and US Treasury 10-year notes as a deflation hedge. They should also include some carefully selected alternatives, including global macro hedge funds and venture capital investments for alpha. Investors should avoid emerging markets, junk bonds, and tech stocks. Steve Henningsen is chief investment strategist and partner at The Wealth Conservancy in Boulder, CO, a firm that specializes in wealth coaching, planning, and investment management for inheritors focused on preservation of capital. He is a lifetime student, traveler, fiduciary, and skeptic. Jeff: The Fed and other central banks have kept the economy and markets propped up longer than some thought they could. How much longer do you envision them being able to do so? Or has the Fed really staved off crisis? Steve: I do not believe we are under a new economic paradigm whereupon a nation can resolve its solvency problem via increasing debt. As to how long the central banks’ plate spinning can defer the consequences of the past 30-plus years of excess credit growth, I hesitate to answer, as I never thought they would get this far without breaking a plate. However incorrect my timing has been over the past two years, though, I am beginning to doubt that they can last another 12 months. Twice in the last few months the stock market plates began to wobble, only to have Fed performers step in to steady the display. With the end of QE, a slowing global economy, a strengthening dollar, and the recent sharp drop in oil prices, deflationary winds are picking up going into 2015, making their balancing act yet more difficult. (Not to mention increasing tension from poking a stick at the Russian bear.) Jeff: Gold has been in decline for over three years now. What changes that? Should we expect gold to remain weak for several more years? Steve: I cannot remember an asset more maligned than gold is currently, as to even admit one owns it receives a reflexive look of pity. While most have left our shiny friend bloodied, lying in the ditch by the side of the road, there are signs of resurrection. While I’m doubtful gold will do much in the first half of 2015 due to deflationary winds and could even get dragged down with stocks should global liquidity once again dissipate, I am confident that our central banks would again step in (QE4?) and gold should regain its luster as investors finally realize the Fed is out of bullets. The wildcard I’m watching is the massive accumulation of gold (and silver) bullion by Russia, China, and India, and the speculation behind it. Should gold be announced as part of a new monetary system via global currency or gold-backed sovereign bond issuance, then gold’s renaissance begins. Jeff: Given what you see coming, how should the average investor position her or his portfolio? Steve: Obviously I am holding on to our gold bullion positions, as painful as this has been. I would also maintain equity exposure via investment managers with the flexibility to go long and short. I believe this strategy will finally show its merits vs. long-only passive investments in the years ahead. I believe that for the next 6-12 months, long-term Treasuries will help balance out deflationary risks, but they are definitely not a long-term hold. Maintaining an above average level of cash will allow investors to take advantage of any equity downturns, and I would stay away from industrial commodities until the deflationary winds subside. Precious metals equities could not be hated more and therefore represent the best value if an investor can stomach their volatility. Grant Williams is the author of the financial newsletter Things That Make You Go Hmmm and cofounder of Real Vision Television. He has spent the last 30 years in financial markets in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, New York, Sydney, and Singapore, and is the portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore. Jeff: The Fed and other central banks have kept the economy and markets propped up longer than some thought possible. How much longer do you envision them being able to do so? Or has the Fed really staved off crisis? Grant: I have repeatedly referred to a singular phenomenon over the past several years and it bears repeating as we head into 2015: for a long time, things can seem to matter to nobody until the one day when they suddenly matter to everybody. It feels as though we have never been closer to a series of such moments, any one of which has the potential to derail the narrative that central bankers and politicians have been working so hard to drive. Whether it be Russia, Greece, the plummeting crude oil price, or a loss of control in Japan, there are a seemingly never-ending series of situations, any one (or more) of which could suddenly erupt and matter to a lot of people at the same time. Throw in the possibility that a Black Swan comes out of nowhere that nobody has thought about (even something as seemingly trivial as the recent hack of Sony Pictures by the North Koreans could set in motion events which can cascade very quickly in a geopolitical world which has so many fissures running through it), and you have the possibility that fear will replace greed overnight in the market’s collective psyche. When that happens, people will want gold. The issue then becomes where they are going to get it from. Physical gold has been moving steadily from West to East despite the weak paper prices we have seen for the last couple of years, and this can continue until there is a sudden wider need for gold as insurance or as a currency. When that day comes, the price will move sharply from being set in the paper market—where there is essentially infinite supply—to being set in the physical markets where there is very inelastic supply and the existing stock has been moving into strong hands for several years. Materially higher prices will be the only way to resolve the imbalance. Jeff: You’ve written a lot about the gold market over the past few years. In your view, what are the most important factors gold investors should keep in mind right now? Grant: I think the key focus should be on two things: first, the difference between paper and physical gold; and second, on the continuing drive by national banks to repatriate gold supplies. The former is something many people who are keen followers of the gold markets understand, but it is the latter which could potentially spark what would, in effect, be a run on the gold “bank.” Because of the mass leasing and rehypothecation programs by central banks, there are multiple claims on thousands of bars of gold. The movement to repatriate gold supplies runs the risk of causing a panic by central banks. We have already seen the beginnings of monetary policy divergence as each central bank begins to realize it is every man for himself, but if that sentiment spreads further into the gold markets, it could cause mayhem. Keep a close eye on stories of further central bank repatriation—there is a tipping point somewhere that, once reached, will light a fire under the physical gold market the likes of which we haven’t seen before, and that tipping point could well come in 2015. Jeff: Given what you see coming, how should the average investor position his or her portfolio? Grant: Right now I think there are two essentials in any portfolio: cash and gold. The risk/reward skew of being in equity markets in most places around the world is just not attractive at these levels. With such anemic growth everywhere we turn, and while it looks for all the world that bond yields are set to continue falling, I think the chances of equities continuing their stellar run are remote enough to make me want out of equity markets altogether. There are pockets of value, but they are in countries where the average investor is either disadvantaged due to a lack of local knowledge and a lack of liquidity, or there is a requirement for deep due diligence of the kind not always available to the average investor. The other problem is the ETF phenomenon. The thirst for ETFs in order to simplify complex investing decisions, as well as to throw a blanket over an idea in order to be sure to get the “winner” within a specific theme or sector, is not a problem in a rising market (though it does tend to cause severe value dislocations amongst stocks that are included in ETFs versus those that are not). In a falling market, however, when liquidity is paramount, any sudden upsurge of selling in the ETF space will require the underlying equities be sold into what may very well be a very thin market. In a rising market, there is always an offer. In a falling market, bids can be hard to come by and in many cases, nonexistent, so anybody expecting to divest themselves of ETF positions in a 2008-like market could well find themselves with their own personal Flash Crash on their hands. Unlevered physical gold has no counterparty risk and has sustained a bid for 6,000 straight years (and counting). Though sometimes, in the wee small hours, those bids can be both a little sparse and yet strangely attractive to certain sellers of size. Meanwhile, a healthy allocation to cash offers a supply of dry powder that can be used to gain entry points which will hugely amplify both the chances of outperformance and the level of that performance in the coming years. Remember, you make your money when you buy an asset, not when you sell it. Caveat emptor. Chris Martenson, PhD (Duke), MBA (Cornell), is an economic researcher and futurist who specializes in energy and resource depletion, and is cofounder of Peak Prosperity. As one of the early econobloggers who forecasted the housing market collapse and stock market correction years in advance, Chris rose to prominence with the launch of his seminal video seminar, The Crash Course, which has also been published in book form. Jeff: The Fed and other central banks have kept the economy and markets propped up longer than some thought possible. How much longer do you envision them being able to do so? Or has the Fed really staved off crisis? Chris: Well, if people were being rational, all of this would have stopped a very long time ago. There’s no possibility of paying off current debts, let alone liabilities, and yet “investors” are snapping up Italian 10-year debt at 2.0%! Or Japanese government bonds at nearly 0% when the total debt load in Japan is already around $1 million per rapidly aging person and growing. I cannot say how much longer so-called investors are willing to remain irrational, but if pressed I would be very surprised if we make it past 2016 without a major financial crisis happening. Of course, this bubble is really a bubble of faith, and its main derivative is faith-based currency. And it’s global. Bubbles take time to burst roughly proportional to their size, and these nested bubbles the Fed and other central banks have engineered are by far the largest ever in human history. As always, bubbles are always in search of a pin, and we cannot know exactly when that will be or what will finally be blamed. All we can do is be prepared. Jeff: If deflationary forces pick up, how do you expect gold to perform? Chris: Badly at first, and then spectacularly well. It’s like why the dollar is rising right now. Not because it’s a vastly superior currency, but because it’s the mathematical outcome of trillions of dollars’ worth of US dollar carry trades being unwound. So the first act in a global deflation is for the dollar to rise. Similarly, the first act is for gold to get sold by all of the speculators that are long and need to raise cash to unwind other parts of their trade books. But the second act is for people to realize that the institutions and even whole nation-states involved in the deflationary mess are not to be trusted. With opaque accounting and massive derivative positions, nobody will really know who is solvent and who isn’t. This is when gold gets “rediscovered” by everyone as the monetary asset that is free of counterparty risk—assuming you own and possess physical bullion, of course, not paper claims that purport to be the same thing but are not. Jeff: Given what you see coming, how should the average investor position her or his portfolio? Chris: Away from paper and toward real things. If the outstanding claims are too large, or too pricey, or both, then history is clear; the perceived value of those paper claims will fall. My preferences are for land, precious metals, select real estate, and solid enterprises that produce real things. Our view at Peak Prosperity is that deflation is now winning the game, despite everything the central banks have attempted, and that the very last place you want to be is simply long a bunch of paper claims. However, before the destruction of the currency systems involved, there will be a final act of desperation by the central banks that will involve printing money that goes directly to consumers. Perhaps it will be tax breaks or even rebates for prior years, or even the direct deposit of money into bank accounts. When this last act of desperation arrives, you’ll want to be out of anything that looks or smells like currency and into anything you can get your hot little hands on. This may include equities and other forms of paper wealth—just not the currency itself. You’ll want to run, not walk, with a well-curated list of things to buy and spend all your currency on before the next guy does. We’re not there yet, but we’re on our way. Expect the big deflation to happen first and then be alert for the inevitable central bank print-a-thon response. Because of this view, we believe that having a very well-balanced portfolio is key, with the idea that now is the time to either begin navigating toward real things, or to at least have that plan in place so that after the deflationary impulse works its destructive magic, you are ready to pounce. Brent Johnson is CEO of Santiago Capital, a gold fund for accredited investors to gain exposure to gold and silver bullion stored outside the United States and outside of the banking system, in addition to precious metals mining equities. Brent is also a managing director at Baker Avenue Asset Management, where he specializes in creating comprehensive wealth management strategies for the individual portfolios of high-net-worth clients. He’s also worked at Credit Suisse as vice president in its private client group, and at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ) in New York City. Jeff: The Fed and other central banks have kept the economy and markets propped up longer than some thought possible. How much longer do you envision them being able to do so? Or has the Fed really staved off crisis? Brent: As much as I dislike the central planners, from a Machiavellian perspective you really have to give them credit for extending their influence for as long as they have. I wasn’t surprised they could engineer a short-term recovery, and that’s why, even though I manage a precious metals fund, I don’t recommend clients put all their money in gold. But I must admit that I have been surprised by the duration of the bull market in equities and the bear market in gold. And while I probably shouldn’t be, I’m continually surprised by the willingness of the investing public to just accept as fact everything the central planners tell them. The recovery is by no means permanent and is ultimately going to end very, very badly. But I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me how much longer this movie will last. My guess is that we are much closer to the end than the beginning. So while they could potentially draw this out another year, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see it all blow up tomorrow, because this is all very much contrived. That’s why I continue to hold gold. It is the ultimate form of payment and cannot be destroyed by either inflation, deflation, central bank arrogance, or whatever other shock exerts itself into the markets. Jeff: As a gold fund manager, you’ve watched gold decline for over three years now. What changes that? And when? Should we expect gold to remain weak for several more years? Gold has been in one of its longest bear markets in history. Many of us in the gold world must face up to this. We have been wrong on the direction of gold for three years now. Is this due to bullion banks trying to maximize their quarterly bonuses by fleecing the retail investor? Is it due to coordination at the central bank level to prolong the life of fiat currency? Is it due to the Western world not truly understanding the power of gold and surrendering our bullion to the East? I don’t know… maybe it’s a combination of all three. Or maybe it’s something else altogether. What I do know is that gold is still down. Now the good news is… that’s okay. It’s okay because it isn’t going to stay down. The whole point of investing is to arbitrage the difference between price and value. And right now there remains a huge arbitrage to exploit. As Jim Grant said, “Investing is about having people agree with you… later.” Now all that said, I realize it hasn’t been a fun three years. This isn’t a game for little boys, and I’ve felt as much pain as anyone. I think the trend is likely to change when the public’s belief in the central banks starts coming into question. We are starting to see the cracks in their omnipotence. For the most part, however, investors still believe that not only will the central banks try to bail out the markets if it comes to that, but they also still believe the central banks will be successful when they try. In my opinion, they are wrong. And there are several catalysts that could spark this change—oil, Russia, other emerging markets, or the ECB and Japan monetizing the debt. This “recovery” has gone on for a long time. But from a mathematical perspective, it simply can’t go on forever. So as I’ve said before, if you believe in math, buy gold. Jeff: Given what you see coming, how should the average investor position her or his portfolio? Brent: The answer to this depends on several factors. It depends on the investor’s age, asset level, income level, goals, tolerance for volatility, etc. But in general, I’m a big believer in the idea of the “permanent portfolio.” If you held equal parts fixed income, equities, real estate, and gold over the last 40 years, your return is equal to that of the S&P 500 with substantially less volatility. And this portfolio will perform through inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, collapse, etc. So if you are someone who is looking to protect your wealth without a lot of volatility, this is a very strong solution. If you are younger, are trying to create wealth, and have some years to ride out potential volatility, I would skew this more toward a higher allocation to gold and gold shares and less on fixed income, for example. Because while I generally view gold as insurance, this space also has the ability to generate phenomenal returns and not just protect wealth, but create it. But whatever the case, regardless of your age, level of wealth, or world view, the correct allocation to gold in your portfolio is absolutely not zero. Gold will do phenomenally well in the years ahead, and those investors who are willing to take a contrarian stance stand to benefit not only from gold’s safety, but also its ability to generate wealth. One other thing to remember about gold is that while it may be volatile, it’s not risky. Volatility is the fluctuation in an asset’s daily/weekly price. Risk is the likelihood of a permanent loss of capital. And with gold (in bullion form), there is essentially no chance of a permanent loss of capital. It is the one asset that has held its value not just over the years, but over the centuries. I for one do not hold myself out as being smarter than thousands of years of collective global wisdom. If you do, I wish you the best of luck! If you see the same risks these fund managers do, make sure your gold portfolio is prepared for both crisis and profit. In tomorrow’s BIG GOLD, I will tell you exactly how to position your entire gold portfolio for the coming bull market, including specific stocks. It’s one of the most important issues you’ll read, because we have research that will tell you why another bull market in gold is virtually guaranteed—and it has nothing to do with supply, inflation, or debt. You’ll want to get positioned now, so don’t miss this edition!last_img read more

On a Sunday in early December about two dozen wom

first_imgOn a Sunday in early December, about two dozen women and girls weaved their bikes down the streets and alleys of the gritty Lyari neighborhood in the Pakistani city of Karachi.They nudged their bikes between rickshaws, motorbikes and crowds of men — men everywhere. Some turned their faces away to avoid the sight of women rattling past on bikes. Others gaped.A nearby samosa seller, Saqlain Usman, 18, shook his head. His three sisters wouldn’t dream of undertaking such an offensive act. They stayed home, he said, where they belonged.”They fear their daughters will copy the riders,” said Zulekha Dawood, 26, the woman’s biking group organizer, who works to organize activities for Lyari’s Girls Cafe, a community center. “Their fears are real. When we began, we had very few girls — maybe seven or eight. Now we have an entire group — 30 girls.”Dawood started this weekly ride in February 2018. She had previously run a girls boxing club and saw some boys on bikes nearby. “If they can ride,” Dawood thought, “why shouldn’t we?”It is a rare endeavor in conservative Pakistan, where few women dare to cycle. It is seen as a vulgar and sexlike act because a woman must straddle a seat.The initiative echoes other pop-up efforts across South Asia and the Middle East. Some are inspired by a book by Indian feminists called Why Loiter? Women and Risk on Mumbai Streets. It discusses how in these parts of the world, a woman in a public space without a purpose — like going to the market or to school — is viewed as a threat to public morality, said Nida Kirmani, an associate professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, who has written about Lyari’s Girls Cafe.”They certainly can’t be hanging out just for fun,” Kirmani said. Unlike men, women aren’t welcome to sit at tea stalls, hang out with their girlfriends at a park or ride a bike for fun. The book Why Loiter? “advocates for women being in public spaces with no purpose,” she said, “as a kind of feminist-political act.” From the start, the Pakistani bicyclists have faced pushback. On their first ride, Dawood says, the girls were accosted by male madrassa students.”They were kicking the girls,” she recalled, and she heard them shout, “Why don’t your brothers stop you? Cover yourself and go pray! Go home!”One cleric, who runs a large Islamic seminary that was not involved in the violence, said that women riding bikes is a provocative act. “Is it necessary that they exhibit themselves among the men?” asked Mullah Muhammad Naeem. He said that such public riding leads “to moral corruption” and suggested that women ride behind high walls, unseen by men.In fact, Dawood created a route away from the madrassa, fearing for the safety of the girls riding with her.Her group of bikers is more remarkable because it is run by working-class women from Lyari. Similar efforts across Pakistan have been dominated by wealthier women in leafy, more liberal suburbs. They face tighter constraints than wealthier women.”When we first started cycling, people said, ‘This is Lyari, not Defence,’ ” Dawood says, referring to an upscale Karachi neighborhood. Regardless of where a woman lives, she has a right to move freely, Dawood says. “This is empowerment. We feel good. We feel free. We can go anywhere.” During that Sunday ride in December, Dawood guided some two dozen women and girls, most of them wearing headscarves, on red bikes out of the cafe’s storeroom. They rode single file past boys playing in a narrow alley. Families sleeping on the pavement waved at the group, whose members rode lightly to avoid splashing through a pool of sewage. They reached a pedestrian area where other women were waiting for a riding lesson.Ayesha Abbas, 14, wobbled through a line of orange cones that Dawood set up for practice riding. “I’m afraid I’ll fall,” Ayesha said. Her helmet was unsteadily perched; like other riders, she had removed her face veil to see clearly. She had already made progress, she boasted — “I can keep my feet on the pedals!”Her friend, Hasiba Abdul Sattar, 14, kept her steady. “I’m teaching her,” she said. Hasiba learned to ride only the previous Sunday. “I’m not perfect,” she admitted. Her instructions were sometimes perplexing: “Put your feet on the pedals — then try walk.”Naila Naz, 19, a college student, surrendered her bike to another woman who wanted to practice. Riding was part of her battle for women’s equality, Naz said, which included “the right to go anywhere.” And it suited a working-class woman. “We are common persons — we don’t own the car — so we are starting from the cycle.”Like many of the female riders, Naz credited her father for inspiring her independence. “Don’t ask permission,” she recalled him saying. “You have every right to be what you want.”He was a rickshaw driver who died at 45 after a sudden illness — the family couldn’t afford treatment. Now Naz lives with her relatives in Karachi. They probably wouldn’t approve of her bike-riding. “I don’t care,” Naz shrugs. “I am my own person.”Others were less defiant. Urooj Bisma, 12, all elbows and knees, often led the group. But she said most riders would probably feel pressure to quit as they reached marriageable age; otherwise their parents would struggle to find them a match. Already, she said, “the social pressure — when I think of what people will say — that also haunts me.”She hopes to resist pressure as long as possible — she loves riding and setting an example: “When girls see us and are inspired, it really gives me immense pleasure. I want other girls to shed their fears and ride a bike.” Copyright 2019 NPR. To see more, visit read more